Oil Shortage 2018

 As recent as six months ago, much of the world was convinced that oil prices would remain lower for longer, with most experts anticipating oil prices would remain in a band between $40 and $60 for a very long time. It was thought that demand was peaking, shale had boundless growth, and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) had abundant spare capacity. However, the fundamentals of oil (supply/demand and oil inventories) have forced this consensus view to change. 

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Disclosures: 

Century Management reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that the sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. 

Century Management is an independent registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Century Management is also registered as a Portfolio Manager in the Province of Ontario. More information about the advisor, including its investment strategies and objectives, can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact Century Management at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.

 

 


 Bull Bear Image

We believe the recent market decline is part of a normal bull market correction, and not the beginning of a long, protracted market decline or bear market.  Within this Century Management update, Market Appears to Be in a Correction, Not a Bear Market, we discuss the following:

  •  What's changed?
  • What do we expect at this time?
  • How can we tell the difference between a bull market correction and the beginning of a bear market?
  • What we believe about the current environment

Click here to access the full report. 

Disclosures: 

This material is for informational use only and is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. CM reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.

CM is an independent registered investment adviser. More information about the advisor including its investment strategies and objectives can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact CM at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.


 

CM in the news white2

Jim Brilliant, CFA, CIO, and Century Management portfolio manager has been interviewed by Bloomberg Businessweek, Barron's, Reuters, and Market Watch.  He has also been featured in an on air interview by Bloomberg Radio.  The following are quotes or excerpts from those interviews:

 US capitol dome

Should investors worry about a federal government shutdown?  We believe the history of government shutdowns suggests that investors can sleep soundly in the week ahead. 

Click here to read Market Performance and Government Shutdowns  

Disclosures: 

This material is for informational use only and is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. CM reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.

CM is an independent registered investment adviser. More information about the advisor including its investment strategies and objectives can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact CM at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.


Arnold Van Den Berg provides Century Management's current market and economic outlook.

Disclosures:

Century Management reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that the sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable.

The CM Value I Composite primarily invests in stocks, bonds, and cash. The focus of this composite is to find undervalued securities that over time will produce above average returns with a lower degree of risk than that of the general market. Portfolios in this composite are not constrained by market capitalization (size). Therefore, a significant portion of portfolio assets may be invested in micro cap, small cap, medium cap, large cap, or mega cap companies with one market capitalization being more heavily weighted over the other at any given time. In addition, there are times where portfolios in this composite will be invested in bonds and cash. Historically, cash and cash equivalent positions have ranged from 2% to 60% of the composite for extended periods of time. However, the long term average has been approximately 21%. The CM Value I Composite was created September 16, 1974. Prior to 2004 the composite was named the CM Standard Value Composite. Prior to 2010 the composite could have accounts with up to 30% fixed income mandates.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the 3000 largest U.S. companies based on total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. The Russell 3000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 3000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 3000 Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 92% of the market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index  It is not possible to invest directly in the indices.

Past performance of markets, composites, or any individual securities is no guarantee of future results. The performance of accounts in any Century Management (“CM”) strategy may be materially different at any given time. Differences that may affect investment performance include strategy type, cash flows, inception dates, historical prices, and fees.

Positions held within each individual account may not be the same from one account to the next. Individual securities may be traded at different times as well as receive different execution prices. In addition, individual accounts may be pursuing similar objectives but may have different investment restrictions.

Certain statements included herein contain forward-looking statements, comments, beliefs, assumptions, targets and opinions that are based on Century Management’s current expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions, targets and beliefs. Words such as expects, anticipates, believes, estimates, projects, targets and any variations of such words or other similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements.

These statements, beliefs, projections, comments, opinions, assumptions, and targets are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements.

You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, that reflect Century Management’s judgment only as of the date hereof. Century Management disclaims any responsibility to update its views, as well as any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise.

Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind, including, without limitation, no warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of the material.

Century Management is an independent registered investment adviser. A full description of Century Management’s investment strategies and risks are supplied in our Form ADV Part 2. To receive Form ADV Part 2 or if you have any questions about this report, please contact your client service representative at 1-800-664-4888, write to us at 805 Las Cimas Parkway, Suite 430, Austin, Texas 78746, or email us via our website at www.centman.com. You may find ADV Part 2 at www.centman.com

 

 


 Oil pic blue640x360

Summary:

  • Oil demand is growing stronger than estimated.
  • We believe shale production growth is set up to disappoint.
  • Global oil liquids inventory is declining.
  • Combined, we believe these factors should lead to higher prices for oil and energy related stocks.

Click here to download the full report in PDF format

 

Disclosures

Century Management reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that the sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable.

 Past performance of markets, composites, or any individual securities is no guarantee of future results. The performance of accounts in any Century Management (“CM”) strategy may be materially different at any given time. Differences that may affect investment performance include strategy type, cash flows, inception dates, historical prices, and fees.

Positions held within each individual account may not be the same from one account to the next. Individual securities may be traded at different times as well as receive different execution prices. In addition, individual accounts may be pursuing similar objectives but may have different investment restrictions.

Certain statements included herein contain forward-looking statements, comments, beliefs, assumptions, targets and opinions that are based on Century Management’s current expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions, targets and beliefs. Words such as expects, anticipates, believes, estimates, projects, targets and any variations of such words or other similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements.

These statements, beliefs, projections, comments, opinions, assumptions, and targets are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements.

You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, that reflect Century Management’s judgment only as of the date hereof. Century Management disclaims any responsibility to update its views, as well as any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise.

Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind, including, without limitation, no warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of the material.

Century Management is an independent registered investment adviser. A full description of Century Management’s investment strategies and risks are supplied in our Form ADV Part 2. To receive Form ADV Part 2 or if you have any questions about this report, please contact your client service representative at 1-800-664-4888, write to us at 805 Las Cimas Parkway, Suite 430, Austin, Texas 78746, or email us via our website at www.centman.com. You may find ADV Part 2 at www.centman.com. 


 

Century Management's Brilliant Says Oil Industry Resilient to Storms

 

 

James Brilliant, Century Management Investment Advisors co-CIO, discusses the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the oil industry with Bloomberg's Julia Chatterley and Joe Weisenthal on "What'd You Miss?" (Source: Bloomberg).

SP 500 Gap

Scott Van Den Berg, CFP®,  Jim Brilliant, CFA, and Arnold Van Den Berg review the following in this CM Market Update:

  • Rebound Expectations - Analysts compiled by Bloomberg expect the energy sector to have the biggest price return over the next 12 months, more than double the estimated advance for any other sector.
  • Digging Deeper - Analysts compiled by Bloomberg forecast explorers and drillers to have the highest returns within the energy sector over the next 12 months.
  • The increase in market value in 2017 alone for Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook, has surpassed the entire market value for some of the largest companies including Boeing, Schlumberger, United Parcel Service, Goldman Sachs, Starbucks, and Nike just to name a few.
  • The gap between the S&P 500 technology sector and the S&P 500 energy sector is the widest since 2001, a level we do not see as sustainable. 

 Qatar1

Larry Light of CBS MONEYWATCH quotes Jim Brilliant on "Why the Qatar crisis isn't rattling oil markets".
Click here to read the Article.

 

Disclosures: Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment strategy including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Century Management (“CM”) made reference to directly or indirectly by CM in its website, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable. CM is not responsible for the content presented on third party websites.

This material is for informational use only and is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information discussed and shown here is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or to invest in any particular sector. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed. You should not assume that any of the securities, sectors or holdings discussed are or will be profitable, or that recommendations we make in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities discussed. There is no assurance that any securities, sectors or industries discussed herein will be included or excluded from an account’s portfolio.  CM reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The discussions, outlook and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives.

CM is an independent registered investment adviser. More information about the advisor including its investment strategies and objectives can be obtained by visiting www.centman.com. A copy of CM’s disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) is available without charge upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact CM at 512-329-0050 if you would like to receive this information.